July Intown Market Report
By Bill Adams, President
This month, the Average Sales Price (ASP) for the market is $744,618 an increase of 3% over the last year and a 12% increase over the last 24 months. The average house was on the market for 35 days, a 10% drop over the last 12 months. In a continuation of a trend, only 1,472 homes sold over the last year, a 10% decrease in transactions.
This month, I would like to compare our mid-year 2024 numbers in this current report with the results from our end of 2023 report. Both reports use the Trailing 12 months format with this report covering transactions from July 2023 to June 2024 and the January 2024 report covers the 12 months of calendar year 2023. At the end of 2023, the Average Sales Price for the market was $732,767. Six months later the Average Sales Price has climbed to $744,618, a 1.6% increase. At the end of the year, the year over year increase was 6% compared to a year over year 3% increase in Average Sales Price this month. At the end of 2023, the Average Days on the Market was 32 days. Six months later that average has creeped up to 35 days. During calendar year 2023, 1,573 properties sold, a decrease of 24% over the prior year. In the 12 months ending June 30,2024, 1,472 transactions occurred, a fall of 10% over the year and a 3% drop over the first six months of 2024.
What do the numbers tell us? House prices in the Intown market seem to be beginning to flatten with the rate of increase in the Average Sales Price tapering off. The increase in the number of Days on the Market, although small, is indicative of a slowing market. The 1,472 single family home sales over the last year are probably a result of lessening demand, high home mortgage interest rates and a tight supply of housing inventory. Between now and the end of the year, we will have a Presidential election and the possibility of one or more Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the past, some national elections have caused buyers and sellers to sit on the sidelines awaiting the outcome of the election. If the Fed’s rate cuts cause mortgage interest rates to fall that should increase demand and, hopefully, increase the inventory of homes for sale.
Even though I am a real estate broker and not an economist, I am asked many times to predict the future. My forecast (guess) for the next six months of housing activity is that if mortgage interest rates do fall, buyers and sellers sitting on the sidelines for whatever reason will get back into the market and home prices will continue to increase. I will also go out on a limb here and predict that Election Day will occur on November 5, 2024.
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